Preparing for withdrawal from Iraq

Republicans went nuts after John Murtha called for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, and I myself do not favour immediate withdrawal, but it already looks as though the Pentagon is preparing for withdrawal:

Even as debate over the Iraq war continues to rage, signs are emerging of a convergence of opinion on how the Bush administration might begin to exit the conflict.

In a departure from previous statements, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said this week that the training of Iraqi soldiers had advanced so far that the current number of U.S. troops in the country probably would not be needed much longer...

The developments seemed to lay the groundwork for potentially large withdrawals in 2006 and 2007, consistent with scenarios outlined by Pentagon planners. The approach also tracks the thinking of some centrist Democrats...

Of course, the tide has turned. The Bush Administration, which has flip-flopped so often on everything to do with the Iraq War that nothing it says is credible, is trying to "relieve enormous pressure by war opponents".

So the latest "story," already told by Rice and soon to be pushed by Bush himself, is that the Iraqis are almost ready to defend themselves. Are they? Maybe. We'll have to see. (I suspect that the Iraqis are far from ready.)

But you can see what's going on, can't you? The Bush Administration is trying to set up a win-win situation for itself. If Iraq succeeds, with success defined broadly as stable self-governance that is more or less democratic, Bush can take all the credit (the war was worth it, see?). If Iraq fails, with failure defined as civil war and/or anarchy, Bush can blame the Iraqis themselves (the war was worth it, but those good-for-nothing Iraqis let us down, see?). And Iraq ends up somewhere between success and failure, which seems likely, Bush can spin whatever story makes him look good and helps him stick it to his opponents.

Don't get me wrong. I hope Iraq succeeds. But don't let Bush define the terms.

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Joe Gandelman gets it right at The Moderate Voice: "The Bush administration has insisted that setting any kind of even nebulous date for a withdrawal encourages the enemy to hold out and get even bolder. Translation: it has insinuated that by setting a timetable more American military could be killed. And it turned this into a partisan jihad, going after one political party when even some members of the GOP are voicing increasing doubts."

For this White House, it's all political, isn't it?

See John Cole at Balloon Juice (with whom I've had my differences but who is one of the more thoughtful conservatives out there): "While drawing down 40k of 160k troops over the next year is certainly not cutting and running, I think it is pretty clear this decision is being based on domestic political considerations rather than facts on the ground. Which, of course, makes this administration no better than the cynical Democrats who have been using this issue for their own political reasons. Worse, some might argue, since this adminstration led us into this war, and now seems unwilling to win it."

Here's John Aravosis at AMERICAblog: "So, basically, in order to save his political behind, Bush will put even more US soldiers in danger by trying to split the baby in half. And, within days of Dick Cheney suggesting anybody advocating a troop pull out is a coward and emboldening the terrorists (even though most of the folks we're fighting in Iraq aren't terrorists, but are actually Iraqis we've pissed off), Bush is now proposing the same thing."

And Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo: "What we have is posturing and positioning over the political consequences of withdrawal. The White House and the president's partisans will lay down a wall of covering fire, calling anybody who considers withdrawal an appeaser, to allow the president to go about the business of drawing down the American presence in Iraq in time to game the 2006 elections."

And Justin Gardner at Donklephant: "The Roveian way of doing things is to double the PR budget and forget about what’s right or wrong, because history is written by the winners. My grave fear, though, is while we may seem like the winners to some right now, the Iraqis will end up losing so much."

See also Eschaton, The Heretik, Middle Earth Journal, Rising Hegemon, The Mahablog, and Just a Bump in the Beltway.

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I just have one word for how the Bush Administration is handling all this: DISGUSTING.