Thursday, March 19, 2009

What’s Russian for "cold feet"?

By Jim Arkedis

Jim Arkedis runs the All Our Might blog at the Progressive Policy Institute.

In 2005, Iran and Russia signed an $800 million contract so that Tehran could acquire five S-300 systems (known as the SA-20 around here), designed to simultaneously track 100 targets and fire at aircraft 120km away. It also has “high jamming immunity,” which I assume means that foreign armies can’t block its tracking mechanisms

How significant is this contract? Very, on two counts:

1. “If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran,” says long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure. Tehran would likely deploy the S-300 around the critical Nantanz nuclear facility, effectively nullifying the military advantage of a US or Israeli plan to attack it. (NB: I’m not suggesting there is wisdom in attacking Iran, but rather addressing only the military balance of power.)

2. $800 million might not seem like a lot these days, but to Iran it still is. How much? Well, the highest number I could find for Iran’s defense budget was $6.2billion. Some think it’s as low as $4.8billion. In other words, the S-300 is a massive outlay.

But is Russia balking at the sale? Reports today suggest the deal is now conditional. And they’d better have a good reason - the cash-strapped Soviet military ghost could sure use the money.

Simply put, it looks like the Russians are trying to curry favor with the Obama administration. It’s a long way before declaring this a victory for diplomacy over confrontation, but this would seem a qualified positive first step. And if Russia suspends the sale indefinitely, what is DC’s quid pro quo?

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